Our present key reflections for 2017+ are themes such as global organic growth expectations, upcoming inflation and increasing cybercrime as new threat.
Following Opecs production cut this week a surging oil price and the commitment from prospective US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin to boost economic growth intensified the flight from sovereign bonds. Investors grew increasingly anxious that president-elect Donald Trumps ambition to return the US economy to growth of 3-4 per cent would mark the end of declining interest rates.
U.S. home prices have climbed back above the record reached more than a decade ago, bringing to a close the worst period for the housing market since the Great Depression and stoking optimism for a more sustainable expansion. http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national- home-price-nsa-index does illustrate this very well.
We have your private data. Send us $300 or well destroy all of it. Thats not a message you ever want to receive. In the past few years, hundreds and thousands of users have fallen victim to anonymous cyber- ransom attacks that have resulted in millions of stolen dollars.
In late 2013, a Trojan known as CryptoLocker C also known as the nastiest malware ever C began to spread across Windows computers. Once infected, the victims private files would be encrypted and locked with a key only known to the attackers…
According to research from the security firm CHECK POINT SOFTWARE malicious software, has seized control of more than one million GOOGLE accounts since August 2016 to take control of devices and install other apps and ad-spewing software without permission. Some of the unauthorized apps also used the victims user name and password to post fake reviews.
http://www.hackmageddon.com/category/security/cyber-attacks-statistics/ is giving a broad overview on motiviations of these devastating attacks; the scary part is that they are more prevalent and more effective now than ever before.
Victims are offered to decrypt the files in exchange for payment made in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bit- coin, a new cryptic currency system founded in 2008. Latest public case occured to a bank in Liechtenstein http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/11/29/liechtenstein_bank_breaches/
Please be aware that BITCOINS are though not a criminal currency, and there are predictions that an electronic currency such as Bitcoin will replace paper cash within a decade. Digital currency will have an influence on the fiat currency, systems of the world, which are established as money by government regulation or law. The way anonymous Bitcoins travel across international borders is a challenge for money laundering, causing new legal decisions and regulations.
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Global Outlook for Gross Domestic Growth rates, 2016-2026
Note: Projections are based on trend growth estimates, which – for the period 2017-2021 – are adjusted for outpast gaps. Color ramp is based on GDP growth rates in 2017. Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017.
We remain positive for global GDP growth, areas according to the chart above. Businesses have to prepare for more disruptions from geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, financial market volatility, and rapid changes in technology, but they also need to stay focused on leveraging the qualitative sources of growth with investment in technology and business productivity. As investment strategy 2017+ we therefore suggest to focus ongoingly on a dividend yielding Single Stock Selection oriented strategies and to avoid fixed income, where possible.
For the upcoming holidays we wish you a peaceful time together with your family and friends, followed by a healty start into a prosperous and lucky 2017.
Best wishes Bjoern