Input 14.02.2018

Good morning

The past days were a challenge in various aspects. A whistle-blower told U.S. regulators that a scheme to manipulate the VIX, the volatility gauge thrust into the spotlight last week during a wild trading session, costs investors hundreds of millions of dollars a month. We were certainly impacted by this negative market correction, but my experience as investment manager through all the years brings me to the conclusion to remain focussed on a disciplined single stock selection, and to stay away from any speculation.

The Net Asset Value of our Lithium strategy is negative, presently @97, but we did succeed to preserve capital in comparison to LIT, the Global Lithium&Battery ETF. MLR LITHIUM is outperforming since inception by >6%, based on the fact that we are following a more diversified approach, by integrating single stocks with more attractive valuations, higher ROE and and average market cap of USD 5.2bio.

We consider to reduce the top holding back to 5% in JIANGXI GANGFENG, SQM, OROCOBRE and SOLAR EDGE, positions which we added at lower market prices during the last weeks.

Overall we believe that our longterm strategy is on track, and that we will be able to create value added within the promising Technology of LITHIUM. The attached Cormark report is always and interesting reading related to the theme.

As always we do appreciate all inputs which you a sharing by email, and we are constantly monitoring new ideas, or positions to be replaced.In case you wish to attend our investment discussion every Wednesday morning at 10AM, you are welcomed to dial in per skype, and hopefully there will be an upcoming chance to meet personally very soon again.

Thankful regards


Input 06.02.2018

Good morning

During the past two trading days we did experience a market correction. Political risk events on the horizon — including the Italian elections and the U.S. mid-terms, which could also bring about sudden bouts of turbulence.

The present correction (flash crash) is creating chances to re-invest positions sold in our US and European strategies, where we created cash positions during the past weeks. We do not bet on indices and are keeping our focus on single stock selection oriented investing.

Interest rates in Europe are still negative, and Equity dividend yields are above 3%.

Global GDP growth did not change overnight.

We are monitoring the markets closely, and shall follow up with our findings. Kind regards


Input 18.07.2017

Good evening

This summer I was impressed by reading the book and the story about Elon Musk, written by Ashlee Vance. Musk has stated that the goals of SolarCity, TESLA, and SpaceX revolve around his vision to change the world and humanity. His goals include reducing global warming through sustainable energy production and consumption, and reducing the «risk of human extinction» by «making life multiplanetary» by establishing a human colony on Mars. In addition to his primary business pursuits, he has also envisioned a high-speed transportation system known as the Hyperloop, and has proposed a VTOL supersonic jet aircraft with electric fan propulsion, known as the Musk electric jet.

In 1999, Bill Gates wrote a book titled «Business @ the Speed of Thought». In it, Gates made bold predictions that at the time might have sounded outrageous:

  • Automated price comparison services will be developed, allowing people to see prices across multiple websites, making it effortless to find the cheapest product for all industries.
  • People will carry around small devices that allow them to constantly stay in touch and do electronic business from wherever they are. They will be able to check the news, see flights they have booked, get information from financial markets, and do just about anything else on these devices.
  • Private websites for your friends and family will be common, allowing you to chat and plan for events.
  • Software that knows when you‘ve booked a trip and uses that information to suggest activities at the local destination. It suggests activities, discounts, offers, and cheaper prices for all the things that you want to take part in.
  • Residents of cities and countries will be able to have internet-based discussions concerning issues that affect them, such as local politics, city planning, or safety.

2017 you can easily search for a product on GOOGLE or AMAZON and get different prices, either on portable computers, smartphones, smartwatches. Two billion people already use FACEBOOK to see what their friends are doing and plan events. There‘s also Snapchat, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook Messenger alongside an explosion of other smaller social networks that more than cover this prediction. Travel sites like Expedia and Kayak offer deals based on a user‘s past purchase data.

GOOGLE and FACEBOOK can offer promotional ads based on the user‘s location and interests. Airbnb, which lets people stay in homes rather than hotels, started to offer specialized trips at destinations so you can live like a local, too. Most news sites have comment sections where people can have live discussions, and many sites have forums where people can ask and respond to certain questions. Twitter and Facebook played roles in political revolutions in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia, as well elections as seen in the US and France.

GOOGLE, APPLE, FACEBOOK and AMAZON. 22 years of growth, combined with the change brought about by the Internet to our businesses, our lives and our civilization. With over 300 billion EUR in

cumulative revenue, a productivity rate three times the average, and a customer base covering nearly 50% of the connected population, GAFA have become, in less than twenty years, the four

superpowers of the new economy. «Search engine», «e-commerce», «smartphone», «social network» are the common nouns they have added to the of the 21st century dictionary. But beyond this disruption in our daily habits, GAFA have fundamentally changed the established rules of business strategy: they ignore classic concepts of market, competition, positioning or plain goods. Instead, they have achieved

a Copernican revolution that truly places the customer at the center of their strategy. The 5 tech giants (Facebook, APPLE, ALPHABET [GOOGLE], AMAZON, MICROSOFT) spend as much on R&D than the whole american research budget on all scientific fields (but defense). In the field of artificial intelligence, public research isn’t anywhere near the investments of these companies. On the one hand, it’s great to see the GAFA’s progress in AI, that will likely lead to major improvements in our daily lives and for the products

we buy (voice assistants, augmented reality), but on the other hand, we are leaving the future of the world in the hands of privately held companies that are focused on commercial applications of their research.

If Google or Amazon are the first to develop powerful artificial intelligence, it is them who will decide how to deploy them, and whether it will benefit everyone in the society…

As machines become increasingly capable, mental facilities once thought to require intelligence are removed from the definition. For instance, optical character recognition is no longer perceived as an example of «Artificial Intelligence», having become a routine technology. Capabilities currently classified as Artificial Intelligence (AI) include successfully understanding human speech, competing at a high level in strategic game systems (such as chess and Go, autonomous cars, intelligent routing in content delivery networks, military simulations, and interpreting complex data.

For instance the young Chinese appear particularly keen on AI-powered services and relaxed about use

of their data. Xiaoice, an upbeat chatbot operated by MICROSOFT, now has more than 100m Chinese users. Most talk to it between 11pm and 3am, often about the problems they had during the day. It is learning from interactions and becoming cleverer. Xiaoice no longer just provides encouragement and tells jokes, but has created the first collection of poems written with AI, «Sunshine Lost Its Window», which caused

a heated debate in Chinese literary circles over whether there can be such a thing as artificial poetry.

Another important source of support for AI in China is the government. The technology figures prominently in the country’s current five-year plan. Technology firms are working closely with government agencies: Baidu, for example, has been asked to lead a national laboratory for deep learning. It is unlikely that the government will burden AI firms with over-strict regulation. The country has more than 40 laws containing rules about the protection of personal data, but these are rarely enforced.

When you think of high-tech cars, you probably think of Tesla or BMW. But there’s another automaker that is quietly becoming one of the industry’s most tech-centric brands: Volvo owned by the Chinese company GEELY 175HK. For years, the Swedish car company has been at the forefront of introducing the latest safety tech into its vehicles. But the car company’s tech savviness extends beyond just its safety systems. VOLVO, is also investing in technology and partnerships that will make its cars more convenient,

efficient, and autonomous. The company‘s latest move includes its pledge that all new Volvo cars will either be fully electric or hybrid by 2019. Volvo and UBER teamed up in August to develop base vehicles that

work compatibly with all of the latest autonomous-driving technology. Both companies pledged to invest

$300 million in the project.

We suggest to invest in equity oriented strategies. Our stock selection remains within GAFA, combined

with themes connected to cybercrime, but mainly global organic growth sectors, respectively of populations essential needs, such as water, nutrition, energy & healthcare.

Our expectation for the financial market 2017+ is, that global interest rates will remain on low levels, which results to the fact that fixed income risk return ratio through all credit ratings is still not attractive, especially in comparison to dividend yield of liquid shares.

We are looking forward if you are sharing your view with us. Meanwhile I am wishing you an ongoing pleasant summer break, and do look forward to meeting with you personally very soon again

Best Bjoern

Input 15.12.2016

Good morning

Our present key reflections for 2017+ are themes such as global organic growth expectations, upcoming inflation and increasing cybercrime as new threat.

Following Opecs production cut this week a surging oil price and the commitment from prospective US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin to boost economic growth intensified the flight from sovereign bonds. Investors grew increasingly anxious that president-elect Donald Trumps ambition to return the US economy to growth of 3-4 per cent would mark the end of declining interest rates.

U.S. home prices have climbed back above the record reached more than a decade ago, bringing to a close the worst period for the housing market since the Great Depression and stoking optimism for a more sustainable expansion. http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national- home-price-nsa-index does illustrate this very well.

We have your private data. Send us $300 or well destroy all of it. Thats not a message you ever want to receive. In the past few years, hundreds and thousands of users have fallen victim to anonymous cyber- ransom attacks that have resulted in millions of stolen dollars.

In late 2013, a Trojan known as CryptoLocker C also known as the nastiest malware ever C began to spread across Windows computers. Once infected, the victims private files would be encrypted and locked with a key only known to the attackers…

According to research from the security firm CHECK POINT SOFTWARE malicious software, has seized control of more than one million GOOGLE accounts since August 2016 to take control of devices and install other apps and ad-spewing software without permission. Some of the unauthorized apps also used the victims user name and password to post fake reviews.

http://www.hackmageddon.com/category/security/cyber-attacks-statistics/ is giving a broad overview on motiviations of these devastating attacks; the scary part is that they are more prevalent and more effective now than ever before.

Victims are offered to decrypt the files in exchange for payment made in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bit- coin, a new cryptic currency system founded in 2008. Latest public case occured to a bank in Liechtenstein http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/11/29/liechtenstein_bank_breaches/

Please be aware that BITCOINS are though not a criminal currency, and there are predictions that an electronic currency such as Bitcoin will replace paper cash within a decade. Digital currency will have an influence on the fiat currency, systems of the world, which are established as money by government regulation or law. The way anonymous Bitcoins travel across international borders is a challenge for money laundering, causing new legal decisions and regulations.

Member of the Almira Group

Global Outlook for Gross Domestic Growth rates, 2016-2026

Note: Projections are based on trend growth estimates, which – for the period 2017-2021 – are adjusted for outpast gaps. Color ramp is based on GDP growth rates in 2017. Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2017.

We remain positive for global GDP growth, areas according to the chart above. Businesses have to prepare for more disruptions from geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, financial market volatility, and rapid changes in technology, but they also need to stay focused on leveraging the qualitative sources of growth with investment in technology and business productivity. As investment strategy 2017+ we therefore suggest to focus ongoingly on a dividend yielding Single Stock Selection oriented strategies and to avoid fixed income, where possible.

For the upcoming holidays we wish you a peaceful time together with your family and friends, followed by a healty start into a prosperous and lucky 2017.

Best wishes Bjoern